The Next Marriage Battle

Libertarians already know it. Progressives hope libertarians won't show up when they are arguing with conservatives, because progressives don't want to admit that libertarians already know it. What’s the point of being at the forefront - by definition - if other people are already farther ahead on the issues?

What the libertarians already know and the progressives hope to forget is the history of the battle for marriage equality. The history that progressives hope people forget is why marriage licenses were instituted in the first place, because they were instituted specifically in order to deny them to people whom others did not want to be allowed to get married. In the era of Jim Crow that meant forbidding interracial marriages, and when those laws were initially passed progressives were quite in favor of them. The early libertarians, still called liberals in those days, were not because it was seen as a government intrusion into a private contract.

Eventually the civil rights movement started in the 1950s, not the 1960s as is commonly believed. One of the many struggles of that era was to end racial segregation in marriage. The battle took many years to complete, but eventually it was won and people of different races were allowed to marry. The libertarians had always been there fighting to end marriage discrimination. The progressives arrived late in the game, proclaimed themselves to be at the forefront, and claimed all the credit when marriage equality in race was finally achieved. Then they turned and proclaimed that libertarians are right wing conservatives in spite of being on the same side of that issue.

Those who were opposed to ending racial marriage discrimination would sarcastically ask what would be next, trying to invoke a slippery slope argument that ended with two people of the same gender getting married. Progressives, at the forefront by definition, laughed at it insisting that their current position was the goal and anything else was absurd. Libertarians, on the other hand, were quite willing to embrace same sex marriage even back then. Progressives didn’t want to talk to libertarians about it.

A generation later, and the progressives finally arrived at the position held by libertarians and proclaimed themselves to be at the forefront of the battle to grant marriage equality to same sex couples. Libertarians had always been there fighting to end marriage discrimination. The battle there is slowly being won, and the progressives are claiming all the credit for it happening. They are also proclaiming that libertarians are right wing conservatives in spite of being on the same side of that issue.

Those who are opposed to ending marriage discrimination based on gender sarcastically ask what is next, trying to invoke a slippery slope argument that ends with polyamorous relationships. Progressives, at the forefront by definition, laugh at it insisting that their goal current position is the goal and anything else is absurd. Libertarians, on the other hand, are quite willing to embrace polyamorous marriages. Progressives don’t want to talk to libertarians about it.

One could argue that the reason for the dissent is because the methods of ending inequality are so very different. Libertarians correctly point out that eliminating marriage licenses back in the days when the hot issue was racial marriage equality would have prevent the whole same sex marriage discussion and in the near future would have the same benefit on the polyamorous marriage discussion. Progressives do not want to be behind anyone else on any issue so insist that there is no future polyamorous discussion. Also they do not want to give up on marriage licenses, because even though the goal is to grant them to anyone it is still asking the state for permission to marry. It is very important to progressives that the state get the authority and respect it deserves.

So when the polyamorous discussion finally arrives, progressives will discover that they are suddenly at the forefront again, refusing to acknowledge anyone who was there before they were. And libertarians will correctly point out that if libertarians had been listened to back when the issue was race or gender then there would be no need for a polyamorous discussion.

Did Obama Play to Lose?

The election put Republicans in charge of the House of Representatives and weakened the Democratic majority in the Senate. Commentators, both right and left, are wondering if the influence of the Tea Party was more of a help or a hindrance, given that in the Nevada and Delaware Senate races, the people elected Democrats over Republicans supported by the Tea Party, but overall it was a gain for the Republicans.

But of greater influence was Obama himself. Even the influence of the Tea Party is a derivative of his own influence. And President Obama has been quite a different person from Candidate Obama. When he was a candidate, he played the "Hope and Change" mantra to the fullest, inspiring audiences with the possibilities of what he would accomplish. In many ways he was a blank slate on which people would draw whatever they wanted to see in a presidential candidate.

Upon assuming office, much of the glamor quickly faded. He got mired in the details, and failed to lead his own party in pushing issues favored by his party’s base. Those who are more observant knew that Obama wasn’t a peace candidate, that he only appeared that way because he was running against Hillary Clinton and later John McCain, and those two were so militaristic that anyone would appear peaceful compared to them. The genuine peace candidates in the Democratic Party primary washed out quickly, one of them transferring to the Libertarian Party.

Since he assumed office, he has alienated two of the traditional bases of the Democratic Party; feminists, and those who support gay rights.

On the issue of gay rights, it was a Republican appointed judge who overturned California Proposition 8, and it was a Republican plaintiff who launched the most successful attack on Don't Ask Don't Tell. Obama has refused to do anything about Don't Ask Don't Tell, allowing Harry Reid to stick it in a bill in such a way to guarantee its failure, and he has refused to move on marriage equality.

On the issue of feminism, it was reported that a woman who was an actual DNC delegate in 2008 reported that she could barely stomach voting for Democrats in the comment section of a New York Times opinion piece. Unable to link to the comment, this paraphrase will have to do to express her complaints:
*misogynistic tactics used against Clinton in the 2008 campaign (which apparently still lurks unhappily in some women's memories)
*freely slung accusations of racism to anyone who does not support Obama past or present
*democratic/liberal assertions that Islam is religion of peace, while, to any western woman's perspective, it is polluted by the subjugation and abuse of women
*reproductive rights no longer hold the sway over female voters that they once did, either because they believe them to be ironclad or they have developed pro-life leanings to whatever modest degree
*Democrats have done little more for women than have Republicans in the past 30+ years

Obama's proudest achievement is a version of Healthcare Reform so watered down and compromised that most progressives are unable to actually claim it as an achievement without holding their nose. As a candidate, he was in favor of Universal Health Care. As president, he was in favor of Single Payer. The bill he signed contained nothing but countless new regulations and a mandate to buy insurance or be fined.

While some analysts are suggesting that the Republican victory in 2010 will result in an Obama reelection in 2012, perhaps that is not Obama’s plan.

The winner of the 2012 election will be in a very bad situation. The economy will have made little improvement at best, and according to current projections the breakeven year for Social Security is 2016. That means whoever wins the 2012 election will have to deal with the fiscal mess of the collapse of Social Security, an unenviable position.

Had Hillary Clinton won the Democratic Primary in 2008, it would have guaranteed a Republican victory in the general election. Continued economic woes as started under President Bush would continue, and the Republicans would have nobody to blame and the public would not blame anyone else, resulting in a Democratic victory in 2012 and leaving them with the "hot potato" as a result.

Instead Obama entered the race to beat Hillary, and then went on to use popular dissatisfaction with the status quo and Republican leadership to win the presidential race in 2008. By then failing to achieve anything, and giving the country laughable examples of attempts to fix the economy, by alienating his own base by failing to lead, he may be working to ensure a Republican victory in 2012 and thus leave them with the upcoming financial catastrophe.

One does not succeed in politics by only thinking in the short term. The leadership of both parties know this, and have to think beyond the next election even if those who are in office seldom think that far ahead.

A bold move by the GOP?

Former Vice President Dick Cheney has come out publicly in support of gay marriage. Meanwhile President Barack Obama and the rest of the leadership of the Democratic Party have come out in favor of Civil Unions instead. While Obama could single-handedly end "don't ask don't tell" and integrate the military, he refuses to do so.

Could Cheney’s announcement be a ploy to win over the homosexual constituency away from the Democratic Party?

The Democrats love to divide people into categories, because doing so make it appear they have a demographic advantage – given that every group except White Heterosexual Able-bodied Christian Males is considered a constituency of the Democratic Party. This is done to present a case that the Republican Party is dying for demographic reasons and had better embrace all of the Democratic Party’s race baiting policies (known for Orwellian reasons as "Civil Rights") or die as a party because, unlike the “robust” Democratic Party, the Republican Party represents just one demographic.

But in spite of the absurdity and inherent racism of politicking by demographics, there are those who believe it. And those will try to make policy around it.

About the only good thing that can be said about Neoconservatism is that since it originated in the Democratic Party those who follow that belief system have little interest in laws that mandate morality. Neoconservatism is a distinct political ideology from the Religious Right. True, the Neoconservatives want a police state, but they want to police loyalty, not morality. Thus they actually are in a unique position to advocate that the Republican Party change its position on homosexual issues.

How would they do this? It would not be an easy sell. The Religious Right caucus wants nothing to do with homosexuality. While selling them on gays in the military can be done more easily the harder sell would be gay marriage.

Gays in the military can easily be covered under the need for manpower. Endless war is a Neoconservative objective, and the belief that the United States has some divine mandate and the idolatrous way the Religious Right views the government can be tailored to advocate integrated service. Greater manpower is needed to fulfill the divine mission of the United States – or so would the Neoconservatives say when selling this to the Religious Right. The Neoconservatives won't believe it, they view the Religious Right as dupes, but that’s how they would sell it.

But Gay Marriage is the major hurdle. The entire debate would have to be reframed. The Neoconservatives would have to frame it as "monogamy versus promiscuity." Given that the Religious Right believes the only appropriate sexual behavior for homosexuals is either abstinence or conversion to heterosexuality, reframing the debate in this manner would be very difficult.

That doesn’t mean that it cannot be done. It could.

And given that, one state at a time, gay marriage is becoming the norm in this country. Civil Unions, once the progressive position, is now seen as the regressive position. It is also the official position of the Democratic Party.

The Democratic Party has long taken many of its core constituencies for granted because "who else will they vote for, the Republicans?" If Cheney is indeed making that play for that voting block, the answer to that question would become "yes."